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| Authors | N Calleja Denis Vella Baldacchino |
| Abstract | In 1918, since Malta had been nursing many wounded troops during this period, the Spanish flu pandemic did reach Maltese shores around the second quarter of 1918. Very detailed public health annual reports were kept at the time, including detailed epidemiology of the pandemic influenza. Indeed 20388 civilians (91 per mille) are known to have been affected, out of which 807 died (4 per mille). Analysis of figures reported in the Annual Report of Public Health for the involved years shows that the largest civilian caseload occurred in the harbour area with a fairly similar numbers in other regions of the islands. However, the highest incidence rates were observed in the North of Malta, followed closely by Gozo and the South-eaSt This study aims to try to draw hypotheses whether temporal changes in incidence could be associated with the timing of public health measures. In addition, using the census population of 1921 as a denominator, age and gender weighted projections will be made onto the 2005 population to estimate the incidence of such a new pandemic. One understands that the assumption of similar conditions between 1918 and 2005 may not be plausible in a number of respects. While hygiene and public health has improved considerably, more of the population moves out of its locality of residence on a daily basis. Such a projection could provide us with an estimate of the upper limits of the expected caseload. Treatment and vaccination is expected to be better as well and, therefore, projections of mortality are not likely to be so realistic. In addition, regional differences are not expected to be so prevalent in view of increased population mobility. |
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| Journal | Malta Medical Journal |
| Volume | 18 Supplement |
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| Key words | incidence, public health, spanish flu pandemic |